Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Health statistic of Mosul

Last week, while I was doing some work, looking in the health statistic of Ninevah governorate. I found those figures, which look interesting to me.

Total inhabitance of the governorate = 2637327

The number of governmental hospitals = 14. Only 9 inside Mosul city and the other are in the related rural areas.

The total number of beds in those hospitals = 2712

There are 3 private hospitals in the city (not included in this statistic)

The statistic is for the year 2005.

The figures which interested me are:

1- Number of patients consulted the out patient departments during the year 2005= 1254905, and = 3438/day

2- Number of cases to the ERs for different causes = 314619, = 861/day

3- Free of charge operations (including the casualties from military activities) = 161 per day.

4-The number of born baby = 88916, that’s mean 243 new born baby per day,
Two third of them were in the Hospitals and one third at homes.

5-The number of deaths from different causes = 10180 per year, that is 28 per day.

6- The born/death ratio is = 9 (very high figure)

This figure, the born/death ratio is very high, in the developed country it is around 1. The cause is unknown, but I have an opinion in my mind that it may has some relation to the general situation of the city.

The "curfew", force people to stay at homes from the early evening.
The "no electricity" force people to go to bed too early.
The "no heating feul" keep the people close to each other to get some warm.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

The Mystery of Mosul Dam

Last week the Washingtonpost write a report about the Mosul Dam.
The report include the following

"AT THE MOSUL DAM, Iraq -- The largest dam in Iraq is in serious danger of an imminent collapse that could unleash a trillion-gallon wave of water, possibly killing thousands of people and flooding two of the largest cities in the country, according to new assessments by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and other U.S. officials.

Even in a country gripped by daily bloodshed, the possibility of a catastrophic failure of the Mosul Dam has alarmed American officials, who have concluded that it could lead to as many as 500,000 civilian deaths by drowning Mosul under 65 feet of water and parts of Baghdad under 15 feet, said Abdulkhalik Thanoon Ayoub, the dam manager. "The Mosul dam is judged to have an unacceptable annual failure probability," in the dry wording of an Army Corps of Engineers draft report.

Water rushes down a spillway at Mosul Dam. As engineers monitor the structure to determine leakage, machines constantly pump grout deep into its base.
Water rushes down a spillway at Mosul Dam. As engineers monitor the structure to determine leakage, machines constantly pump grout deep into its base. (U.s. Army Corps Of Engineers)

At the same time, a U.S. reconstruction project to help shore up the dam in northern Iraq has been marred by incompetence and mismanagement, according to Iraqi officials and a report by a U.S. oversight agency to be released Tuesday. The reconstruction project, worth at least $27 million, was not intended to be a permanent solution to the dam's deficiencies.

"In terms of internal erosion potential of the foundation, Mosul Dam is the most dangerous dam in the world," the Army Corps concluded in September 2006, according to the report to be released Tuesday. "If a small problem [at] Mosul Dam occurs, failure is likely."

The Iraqi media and other media spread the report, it made a terror in the city,, some people even planed to leave the city!. why not if a wave of 65 feet will cover the city?.

Next day, Abdulkhalik Thanoon Ayoub, the dam manager, said :"There is no danger from the dam!!".
How can we believe him, while the report said " 3 trillion gallons of water" may cover the city at any time ?

I wrote to my cousin, an engineer who have enough knowledge, asking him for advice.
He wrote to me:

"I hope all is OK with you and all the family.
There is a possibility of the dam failure. I don't thing it is imminent. Also if it fails the danger to the city of mosul and Baghdad is minimal. That is because Mosul is higher than the river channel and baghdad is too far for the wave to reach it before it is flatened.
I will get the technical report and read it as soon as I can. I will let you know what I find.

Best wishes to all.

The next day he send me another e.mail:

"I have done more research about Mosul Dam. I found out that there is no danger to Mosul or Baghdad in the event that the dam has a catastrophic failure. That is a sudden total col laps. The reason that the reservoir now only holds 3 billion cubic meter. The dam was designed to hold 11 BCM.
With only 3 BCM the dam will not fail and if it fails there will be no danger of flooding.

Best wishes"

OK, now we can sleep comfortably thinking only in the home raids, roadside bombs, and bombed cars. At least those may kill only few tens of people, while the flood my kill more than 500 000 people.

One question in my mind. What is the purpose of this article? Is there any hidden objective?
May be I became very suspicious about any thing come from the American side.

Friday, November 02, 2007

warning or...?

Yesterday, we received an official warning from the directorate of health.
They send us a note with a piece of paper written in the upper line "Top Secrete".

This warning came through the governorate of Nineveh from the Ministries of Intern and Health.

They inform our hospital as well as other hospitals that there are some drugs used for the treatment of some patients with Diabetes, are found to be contaminated with AIDS virus.

They give a description of the containers.
The drug is Insulin, written on the label of the container "made in Iran"

I my self prefer a thing like this should be announced publicly, and written on all the News papers Magazines and broad casted all over the country through the Radio and TV. and a signs put on every hospital and pharmacy in the country.

The question!, why this subject regarded as a top secret, has no answer till now.

Any body has an idea?.. please let me know.